The Future of the Pro Channel: What’s Coming for Builders, Dealers, and the Titans
Zonda’s data shows a market that feels soft today, but is already preparing to move.
Inside the Episode
In this episode of the Industry Insiders Podcast, I sat down with Todd Tomalak, Principal of Building Products at Zonda, to unpack what is really happening in the building industry and where the next wave of growth will come from.
We covered the current slowdown, homeowner behavior, home equity trends, and the moves major players like Home Depot, Lowe’s, and QXO are making to redefine the pro channel.
But one category stood out in the data. Windows and doors are about to lead one of the strongest replacement cycles the industry has ever seen.
What the Data Says
Zonda’s data shows a market that feels soft today but is already preparing to move.
- Pro jobs are down 20 percent quarter over quarter.
- High-income homeowners have pulled back on spending because of job concerns.
- Builder traffic is trending up in recent weeks.
- Home equity extraction is up 38 percent year over year.
That last number is critical. Homeowners have record levels of equity but have not started spending it. Once they do, those dollars will go to projects that improve comfort, efficiency, and long-term value.
Why Windows and Doors will Surge
Todd explained that this setup looks similar to what happened in roofing ten years ago. Back then, demand looked flat even though housing activity was healthy. When the replacement cycles aligned, the market spiked fast.
The same dynamic is now unfolding in windows and doors.
Between 2005 and 2012, the industry experienced a major wave of installations. Those products were stronger, more efficient, and built to last longer than any before. Their quality extended the replacement timeline far beyond the usual cycle.
Now those durable products are reaching the end of their lifespan. Combine that with millions of older homes that have never been upgraded, and you have a replacement wave that will drive growth for years.
Zonda calls it “the setup,” the quiet window before the market flips from slow to surge.
When that equity begins to move, it will flow into visible, high-value categories like windows and doors.
The numbers tell the story:
- Home equity extraction is up 38 percent.
- Homeowners who use a HELOC for one project are four to seven times more likely to start another.
- The company that wins the first job often wins the next three.
This is not a guess. It is a measurable shift that will change the building products market.
Homeowners hold record levels of equity—but most haven’t started using it. Once they do, those dollars will go to projects that improve comfort, efficiency, and long-term value.
Find out how you can position your business to lead the next growth cycle.
The Clash of the Titans
Consolidation and investment are reshaping distribution. Todd and I discussed what these Titans are doing, and how to work this new landscape.
Consolidation
- Home Depot acquired SRS to strengthen its hold on pro distribution.
- Lowe’s purchased FBM (Foundation Building Materials) to deepen its reach in the professional channel.
- QXO, led by Brad Jacobs, acquired Beacon and is using technology and capital to expand quickly.
Each move shows that the largest players are focusing on the professional contractor. The future of the channel will be built around pros who influence brand choice and product adoption.
How Independents or Smaller Competitors Can Win
Independent dealers and distributors can still compete and win. What they need are systems that scale trust and visibility and give them the leverage of a larger player. Todd and I discuss the pros and cons of being an independent in today’s market.
At Grit Blueprint, I developed the BLEND Framework to help great legacy businesses stop being the best-kept secret and start being the unmistakable leader in their category.
BLEND is a proven structure that helps companies turn reputation into measurable growth.
- B — Brand. Be known and be visible. If people cannot find you, they cannot choose you.
- L — Leverage. Build partnerships with manufacturers and co-ops to act bigger while staying flexible. Use tools like quoting software to compete with anyone.
- E — Experience. Win with service. Quote fast. Deliver experiences that others cannot compete with in your market. Follow up better.
- N — Niche. Focus on your strongest categories and dominate them.
- D — Digital. Show up where your customers are searching, including Google, Social Media, and AI search tools.
Digital is the New Front Door
Even in a slower market, online sales for building products are up nearly 10 percent. Every customer, whether a homeowner or a contractor, starts online.
To win digital visibility:
- Keep your product and company information accurate.
- Write content that both people and search engines can understand.
- Use chat and automation to respond quickly.
- Measure quotes and conversions, not clicks.
- Publish proof. Share installs, testimonials, and project results.
Visibility builds trust, and trust builds growth.
The Next 12 Months
The next year will determine who leads the next growth cycle.
- Home equity turns into projects. Prepare your systems now.
- Replacement demand accelerates. Secure supply and labor.
- Digital presence drives decisions. Make it easy to find and do business with you.
- AI search changes discovery. Structure your online content for search visibility.
- Train your bench. Strong, skilled crews will define who wins.
Businesses that focus on visibility, trust, and speed will lead when the calls start coming in again.
Why this Conversation Matters
This episode is not about guessing where the market will go. It is about seeing the data and preparing to move first.
The window and door replacement cycle is setting up to be one of the biggest opportunities of the decade. Manufacturers, dealers, and pros who build the right systems now will be ready to meet it head-on.
Our conversation on the Industry Insiders Podcast breaks down the data, the opportunities, and the strategies that will help every player in the channel stay ahead.
Listen to Episode 3
Guest host Stefanie Couch, Founder of Grit Blueprint, and Todd Tomalak, Principal, Building Products at Zonda, dig into the pro channel power shift and the new battleground at the top of the funnel.
About the Author
Stefanie Couch is the Founder of Grit Blueprint, a visibility and growth company serving the building industry and other legacy businesses. She helps manufacturers, dealers, and pros stop being the best-kept secret and become the unmistakable leaders in their markets. Stefanie is also the host of The Grit Blueprint Podcast, a national speaker, and an advisor to brands and organizations driving the future of the building products industry.